Thursday, August 8, 2013

Negative Growth vs. Changes in the Rate of Growth

I gave a talk to the Charleston-Trident Association of REALTORS yesterday and the Post and Courier summarized it. Below is a graph representing the slowdown in employment growth that I talked about here.



As you can see, the rate of growth of Charleston employment has declined significantly in 2013, even as the growth rate itself is still positive. In fact, the current growth rate closely parallels the state average (currently at +1.6%).

Housing demand closely follows employment growth. Thus, if this lower rate of Charleston employment growth persists, it is likely that the rate of growth in the Charleston housing market will also be reduced. Nevertheless, it is important to recognize that a decline in the rate of growth is not the same as a market contraction. A market contraction occurs only when we observe negative rates of growth. In this graph, that would be illustrated if either the blue line or the red line were to go below 0%. Currently there is no evidence that we will see negative employment growth or negative housing growth anytime soon.