Every month the South Carolina Department of Employment and Workforce releases the latest employment numbers for the state. Yesterday afternoon, we found out that our unemployment rate rose from 8.0 percent in May to 8.1 percent in June.
One aspect of the monthly employment figures that is not often discussed is the fact that there are two sources for the South Carolina employment data that are released every month. The first source is the Current Employment Statistics (CES), which reflects data gathered from surveys of businesses. The second source is the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS), which reflects data gathered from surveys of households. Because the CES and the LAUS numbers come from different surveys, their monthly employment estimates are almost never in total agreement. The unemployment rate reported each month is based off of LAUS data.
In the employment data released yesterday, the CES figures show that the total number of employed persons increased by 10,100 between May and June. The LAUS figures, however, show that there were 4,769 fewer people working in June than in May. This is why the unemployment rate increased.
The two surveys, while almost never in total agreement, usually report employment going in the same direction. When they do not, however, it is usually due to nothing more than measurement error. In other words, the actual change in employment is so small that it is very difficult to tell whether we gained or lost jobs.
So the bottom line is that when each survey reports total employment moving in opposite directions - as was the case this month - the odds are that the actual change in total employment for the month was very small.
About Me
- Joseph Von Nessen
- Dr. Joseph C. Von Nessen is a research economist in the Division of Research at the Darla Moore School of Business where he conducts a wide variety of economic impact analyses, survey research, and other applied work involving regional economic modeling. In addition, he is responsible for the preparation and presentation of the University of South Carolina's annual statewide economic forecast and serves on the advisory committee at the South Carolina Board of Economic Advisors. Dr. Von Nessen also specializes in housing economics and residential real estate and provides economic and marketing research to clients in both the private and public sector. He regularly speaks to business and government leaders throughout South Carolina about the housing market and the local economy.